Ivanova A.A., PhD Volkova V.V., Goncharova Y.S.

Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

MODELLING OF SHADOW ECONOMY INFLUENCE ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INDEX

Reducing the shadow economy is one of the priorities of Ukraine's strategic development. According to official data today about 32% Ukraine's GDP maintain the shadow economy. Index 40% is critical for the state because, in fact, the state begins to manage shadow capitals.

The complex of following tasks and their models specifying the level of taxes which will help gradually reduce the volume of shadow economy under the condition of filling state's budget gap are offered in this paper:

§ the task of determination of admissible tax rates that the Ukrainian economy can allow on the modern stage of its development;

§ the task of finding the optimal tax rates under the given level of state budget deficit;

§ the task of analyzing the impact of taxes changing on the volume of shadow economy.

The economic content of the first task consists in that the declining of tax rates under other equal conditions has to stimulate an investment process in the enterprise. In other words, the value of fixed assets should increase. So, it is necessary to find such tax rates under which even simple reproduction of enterprise capital will be possible. Thus, the tax rates within the framework of this task are bounding and show expedience and directions of changes in the tax policy of the state in comparison with the existent rates of taxation.

The second task allows calculating such tax rates in economy which will allow minimizing time of relaxation of the tax in payments in budget under the condition of non-surplus of state budget deficit. Thus time of budget relaxation is defined as the time during which the budget losses, caused by the decline of tax rates will be offset by the tax base increasing. Searched tax rates should be in the range from the tax rates before their reform which are as maximum as possible for the budget of country on this stage.

The third task allows conducting the comparative analysis of the influence of tax change on the value of shadow economy sector under various conditions, and investigating the dynamics of declining the volume of shadow economy due to the positive impact of administrative decisions in the use of optimum tax rates.

In this paper on the basis of the real input data the followings values of tax rates providing the profit reproduction for industry of the country: income tax – 0,26, tax value-added – 0,42, «social» tax – 0,59. Consequently, the introduction of the new Internal Revenue Code was necessary indeed, because enterprises did not have any possibility for simple reproduction as a result the capital annually declined on 7,7%.

For the decision of the second task the followings limits, in the framework of which taxes can change, were set:

§ income tax from 23 to 11%;

§ tax value-added from 20 to 17%;

§ «social» tax from 42 to 35,8%.

It follows to underline that even at the decline of tax rates to maximally possible, a growth rate identically remains negative quantity 6,7% that more than the permitted deficit registered in the state budget.

Doing subsequent calculations after the model of the second task, we obsessed that =. Received result can be explained thus. Heavy position which was created today in the economy of Ukraine is caused, above all things, not by the size of tax pressure, but high degree of wear and obsolescence of capital production assets. For the improvement of situation these assets should be replaced by new technological equipment. Therefore the main reserve for increase in the rate of the accumulation of capital is increase of capital productivity and inclination of enterprises to investment and innovation.

The calculations in the modified conditions also were done in this paper: increase of capital productivity and inclination of enterprises to investment and innovation. Such changes will become possible due to a tendency on enterprises exit from the shadow. On such conditions the optimum tax rates will be the following: income tax 20,2%, tax value-added 18,5%, «social» tax 35,8%. Thus a growth of the fixed capital rate will be 0,08% on a year. Time of relaxation tax revenues will be 10,5 years. Expediency of such tax policy is confirmed by conclusions and practical recommendations which were given to Ukraine by the World Bank in 2010.

After determination of optimum tax rates for the present state of economy there was the conducted analysis, called to answer a question: how changes of the tax liability influence on the volumes of shadow economy on the whole?

Thus, the analysis of received results allows us to do the final conclusion: the level of shadow economy in countries depends on many factors, including those that do not concern taxes. But consummation the optimum tax policy is one of the most effective methods of fight against the shadow economy.