Ivanov R.V., Filipova O.O., Goncharova J.S.

*Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University, Ukraine*

**ECONOMY-MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS AT THE ENTERPRISES OF TRANSPORT**

The effectiveness of a single company at the market of goods and services is determined by the level of validity of administrative decisions. At the Ukrainian enterprises it is spent for a unit of manufactured product 2-3 times resources more than in developed countries. This is due to not only use of outdated technology and equipment, but also economically unjustified managerial decisions. Because of that the urgent task today is the economic and mathematical justification of the effectiveness of decisions in management, the solution of which helps reduce total cost of resources and increase the competitiveness of enterprises. Significant features should be considered when economic and mathematical models of enterprises of passenger transport are being created.

To assess the real development of industries of the state it is needed to investigate the efficiency of transport operation. The problem of adaptation of the rolling stock motor enterprise structure to the external dynamic conditions affects the some types of transportation in the conditions of changing demand. The external dynamic conditions are characterized by variation in transport needs of different species, as well as requirements for production and logistics, cost of fuel and lubricants, energy, vehicles and devices [1]. Many scientists examined a question of the effective operation of transport, but the question of economic and mathematical justification of managerial decisions related to the optimization of the core motor enterprises in the transport system with pulsing passengers flow remains poorly understood.

The purpose of optimizing of the rolling stock structure is to increase the competitiveness of motor business, which is determined by its ability to do transport work with minimal costs [2]. To construct an adequate mathematical model that fully reflects the best options to search the best management solution at the trasnport enterprise, we should consider two aspects. The first is searching strategies for making the correct decision, the second is to take into account maximum number of factors for the creation of economic and mathematical models considering the selected system of making decision, which would be appropriate to find some options that you can manage to increase the efficiency of the transport company.

Thus, here is proposed mathematical model of interaction of transport and passenger areas that takes into account the amplitude-frequency properties of transport epicycles and allows determining the change in passenger space and time. At the beginning the general principles of transport services demand for residents from selected areas are estimated. The dependence of the mobility of the population from the population number of the city is found based on the data of observations. In order to find the amount of passenger trafficin the most accurate way, the model takes into account the statistical patterns of daily changes in passenger traffic, weekly and seasonal. Generalized statistical dependence with a frequency ω = 2π/T and amplitude characteristics, where T – the selected time interval, which investigates changes in passenger traffic in a given transport system. The largest fluctuations relative to the average passenger traffic generated daily cycle – up to 300% a week – up to 25% seasonal – up to 30%. Detected in the analytical form of statistical patterns of transport epicycles remain valid also for the global reduction in passenger traffic in Ukraine, it is only necessary to adjust the value of empirical constant included in the formula. After analysis of sensitivity, we can say that for each transport system there is state of saturation, when a further increase in traffic can only be provided by improving of transport system network and the quality of services. Analytic substantiation of the effectiveness of management decisions needs the determination of payback period – time period for which expended financial resources return thanks to received profit.

To find and to substuntiate the decisions related to the determination of the optimal number of buses on a given route use economy-mathematical methods that allow for preset parameters epicycles transport time and resource constraints to find the extremum of objective function for each individual route. Economy-mathematical model for calculating the optimal number of vans provided the agreed minimum total cost of the enterprise and passengers on a given route:

,

where S – the cost of operating a transport unit for unit time (1 h),

l – length of the route,

t3 – time spent on minibus stop in the transport process,

vT – technical speed of traffic,

H – average monthly salary resident area per unit time (1h).

General characteristics of analytical methods for study efficiency solutions allow prediction of the development of enterprises, including changes in the competitive environment following the principles described the evolution of economic systems. In the process of using these methods is necessary to adapt them to different types of solutions that are implemented in the fields of economy and provide optimum utilization of resources.

**Literature:**

1. Аксьонова З.І. Аналіз виробничо-господарської діяльності автотранспортних підприємств: підручник для ВНЗ / З.І. Аксьонова.– 2-е вид., переробл. і доп. – М.: Вища школа, 1980. – 287 с.

2. Анненков А.В. Стабільна робота автопідприємства / А.В. Анненков // Вантажне і пасажирське автогосподарство. – 2004. – №10. – С. 18-23.