Koriak B.S., Beschastnaya D.A., Mudrenko A.A.

Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

MODERN TRENDS IN THE UKRAINIAN FOREIGN TRADE DEVELOPMENT

The level of the economic development of any country depends largely on the foreign trade. No country has managed to create a healthy and dynamic economy in isolated conditions until the present. International trade provides the country with a great number of opportunities which stimulate the economic growth, promote the formation of specialization vectors in the certain spheres of the economic activity, thereby giving an opportunity to import goods which aren’t manufactured in the country. 

An increasing role of the globalization processes in the country’s economic growth first of all has shown itself in the intensive development of the foreign trade. Own active participation in foreign economic relations fully explains the income change of the richest and the poorest regions of the world – from 3:1 in 1820 to 18:1 in 2001, and as for the income per capita between the poorest and richest countries -763:1 (Luxembourg: Burundi) in 2008. 

The most dramatic changes in the foreign trade occur during world crises, since there are a variety of tools and means of foreign trade policies, which are used by the government to overcome the crisis, level its consequences and stimulate the post-crisis growth. Breakpoints often occur during such periods and cause the fundamental changes in old trends, the formation of new lines of development and the structural changes. A similar situation has been observed in Ukraine's foreign trade in the past three years, and this very factor actualizes the need to study the modern tendencies and factors of its development, the positive and negative impacts of the crisis on this sector of the economy.

Ukraine’s external trade in 2008-2010 was influenced by the consequences of the global financial and economic crisis, largely due to the significant level of the openness of the economy, when the changes in the world commodity markets and a rapid reduction in domestic production negatively affected the tendencies of the foreign trade development in Ukraine.

In the year 2010 the volumes of the international trade constantly increased in comparison with the year 2009, when a significant decline in volumes was observed. In 2010, the cost volumes of the world merchandise trade increased by 24% compared with the previous year. The volumes of world merchandise exports in the fourth quarter of 2010 increased approximately by 3% in comparison with the previous year. Despite a positive trend, the cost volume of the world trade is smaller than it was before the crisis.

There was an increase in the volumes of services merchandise trade in the Ukrainian foreign commerce in 2010 and the first half of 2011. In particular, in 2010 the export amounted to $63067,1 million, the import made up $66180.2 million. Compared with the year 2009, the exports increased by 27,9% and the imports rose by 30,8%.

The volume of the exports of goods and services in the first half of 2011 was $39397,9 million, the imports amounted to $41199 million. The export increased in comparison with the first half-year by 38,5% and the import went up by 48.1%.

The balance of foreign merchandise trade was negative both in 2010 and 2011, while the balance of services trade was positive and it made up $1801,1 million. The formation of the negative balance in 2010 was affected by the following groups of goods: oil, energy products -$1594,1 million, cars – $2780 million, polymers and plastics – $2355,1 million.

Goods and services were mainly exported to the countries of CIS-36,4% and to the countries of the European Union – 25,4%. The largest export deliveries were made to theRussian Federation (locomotives, road equipment, ferrous metals, energy goods, crude oil), Turkey (ferrous metals, seeds of oil plants, fertilizers, fats, oils), Italy, Belarus, Polandand India. The main partners in the export of services were the Russian Federation, Switzerland, the USA, Great Britain, Cyprus, Germany and Belgium.

In 2010 the import volume from the countries of CIS amounted to 44%, from the European Union – 31.4%. The largest share in imports was made by the Russian Federation(oil, energy goods, equipment, ferrous metals), China (equipment, polymers, clothing), Germany (equipment, pharmaceutical products, cars, polymers), Poland, Belarus, the USA.Cyprus, the Russian Federation, the UK, Germany, the USA and Switzerland had the largest share in the total volume of the import of services.

Mineral products, metals, machinery, products of chemical industry, aircraft and vessels, products of natural origin formed the bulk of the Ukrainian foreign trade. Transport services, business, professional, technical and tourist services dominated in the structure of the foreign service trade.

On the basis of the research, we can identify the main factors which have influenced the development of Ukraine's foreign trade: the preservation of a significant part of raw materials and products with a relatively low added value in exports. To promote exports of this product group special attention should be paid to the technological modernization of the metallurgical and processing enterprises and the resumption of demand for metals on the world markets. Also, due to the low rate of implementation of energy saving technologies at the enterprises, Ukraine still depends on imported energy. Special attention should be paid to reduction in cost volumes of household consumptive use due to the undeveloped wage policy and high inflation, which make imports cheaper and reduce the deficit of the trade balance.

To accelerate the process of overcoming the crisis phenomena in the sphere of the international trade in the modern Ukrainian conditions first of all it is necessary to find a joint vector of actions of the authorities, business and the Ukrainian society. It’s essential to create the foreign trade balance in Ukraine, to adjust the export potential of Ukraine in accordance with the international requirements. It’s vital to find the best ways of getting over the crisis in order to ensure further economic growth.