Smakouz O.O., PhD Volkova V.V., Goncharova Y.S.

Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

MODELING OF PLANNING OF REGION'S SPENDING ON SOCIAL NEEDS

At the present stage of the world community development sustainability and competitiveness of the state depends on the level of human and intellectual capital that is determined by providing social benefits of population. International experience confirms that adequate provision of social benefits to society can be achieved only if the sustainable economic development. [1] In fact, if market reforms occur in any country, including Ukraine, a difficult question is always raised: how the social needs of society have to be ensured in conditions of limited resources? Regional authority needs in modern tools for the preparation of management decisions on planning region’s spending on social needs, forecasting of socio-economic and demographic development.

Therefore, the elaboration of the methodological system of forecasting and planning of socio-economic parameters of the region and effective methods of using economic and mathematical modeling of these processes are timely and relevant. [2]

The main purpose of this work is the theoretical basis and development of complex economical and mathematical models and methods of costs for social needs of the region under the limited financial resources.

Consider the forecast models of certain types of social risks for determination total cost of compensation the effects of social risk to the population of the region. [3].

1. Costs which related with the risk of population morbidity:

   (1)

Where E2 – compensation costs of occupational risk;  treatment costs per patient, the type of treatment p, diagnosis k, expenditure s; Qр – number of cases during the study period, type of treatment p; Q- number of reported cases of illness;  – level of morbidity of diagnosed k; - the level of hospitalization; p– the index that characterizes the type of treatment of disease, ; k – index, which characterizes the diagnosis, ; s – the index that characterizes the kind of expenditure article 

2. The costs of the compensation risk of losing job:

 (2)

Where min2 – the cost of living for people of working age, UAH; pi – the number of unemployed people with different duration of staying in the state of unemployment, people; Тi – the corresponding period of unemployment, monthly; d – coefficient of hidden unemployment.

3. Costs, which necessary for child care:

, (3)

Where E3 – the costs of compensation impact of social risks associated with pregnancy, childbirth and raising a child; F – the number of pregnant women; - legally installed cost of living for the population aged, respectively, from 0 to 6, from 6 to 18 years and of working age, UAH; - number of children aged, respectively, from 0 to 3, from 0 to 6 and 6 to 18 years; t – period of temporary disability (t = 3 months); - correction coefficient that considers proportion of multiple pregnancies in the total number of births;  – correction coefficient that considers proportion of pregnancies ending in miscarriage in the total number of births; M – set by law standard payment for one child.

4. The cost of providing disabled population:

(4)

Where min4 – the cost of living for people who lost working capacity; Qj – numbers of retired of the category j.

5. Payments for temporary disability as a result of illness or injury which not associated with an accident at work:

(5)

Where V – value of the average wage in the region, UAH; t – average duration of one case of temporary disability, in days; r – rate of temporary disability per 100 employees;L – number of workers.

The concept of planning expenditures for social needs of the region can improve the quality of regional governance and ensure the most effective distribution of funds of limited resources. It also has a high degree of universality and can be used for implementation of regional management of different levels.

Using survey results help increase efficiency of public institutions through more informed decisions regarding the management of social costs.

Literature:

1. A.P. Algin. Risk and its role in public life. – M.: Musl, 1989. – 188 p.

2. A.I. Amosha. Cost-effectiveness of improving working conditions (background, analysis, forecasting). – Donetsk, 1998. – 378 p.

3. O.V. Bytkevich. Simulation of social processes using graph theory // Bulletin of the East National University named by V. Dal. – 2005. – № 5 (87). – С. 23–26.