Pushko К.*, PhD Matsuga A.N. *, Drozdova I.V. **, Atanova M.U. *

* Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University, Ukraine,** State institution "state research Institute of medico-social problems of disability Ministry of health of Ukraine"

COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH TRENDS IN PRIMARY DISABILITY IN UKRAINE

The existing monitoring of disability in Ukraine provides the collection of data on the primary disability, and its processing and analysis is limited by the calculation of average characteristics of primary disability and estimating the percentage changes of the last year [1]. Furthermore, there is no software processing of monitoring data. So the task of the development of new computing technologies for the analysis of primary disability with their program implementation is actual nowadays.

In this work a computing technology for investigation of trends in the levels of primary disability is proposed, which is realized in the software "DisTrend".

So, the monitoring data of primary disability for each administrative territory of Ukraine and each class of diseases (disease) is presented in the form of time series {x1, x2 ,…, xn}, where n is the number of years over which the monitoring was carried out. The number of such time series is determined by the number of administrative territories (27 and in Ukraine as a whole) and nosologies (44). The task is to check the trend of each time series and in case of confirmation the availability highlight this trend. Taking into account that the processing is the subject to short time series, it was carried out the identification and recovery only the linear trend.

To solve this problem the next processing technology is proposed, which consists of the following stages:

1. Identification of the linear trend of changes in the level of primary disability on the basis of the criteria of randomness (extreme points, a criterion based on the signs of distinction, record values, Spearman and Manna) [2]. It should be noted that the most powerful with the alternative of the existence of the linear trend are the Spearman criteria and the Manna one.

2. In case of detection of trend at the first stage, the implementation of the recovery of the linear trend of the least-squares method [2].

This technology was implemented in the software "DisTrend". The program "DisTrend" developed in the framework of Borland Delphi 7.0 on Delphi language.

By means of the program the analysis of monitoring data of primary disability in Ukraine, provided by Ukrainian state research Institute of medical and social problems of disability was carried out. The indicators of 44 classes of diseases for the adult and the working-age population of the administrative territories of Ukraine were analyzed.

As an example, below there are the results of processing performance of primary disability of the adult population in some nosologies of Dnipropetrovs'k region (table1). The table presents the results of applying the criteria of randomness in the form of p-values. As the critical level of significance the value a = 0,05 was elected. If the p-value is bigger than a, the conclusion about the absence of tendencies of changes of the level of disability of the relevant nosology was made, otherwise the existence of such tendency was claimed. The conclusion about increasing/decreasing trend was placed on the sign of the statistics of the criterion.

On the basis of the results of the analysis, the following trends has been identified in Dnipropetrovs'k region:

· the decrease tendency was detected in such indicators as frustration of mentality and behavior, schizophrenia, diseases of the eye and its appendages apparatus, diseases of system of blood circulation, acute rheumatic fever and chronic rheumatic heart disease, hypertensive heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, silicotuberculosis, gastric ulcer and 12 duodenal ulcer, injury of the eye and orbit;

· the growth tendency was found in the following indicators: some infectious and parasitic diseases, diseases of arteries, arterioles and veins, occupational diseases (except of silicotuberculosis and pneumoconiosis), epilepsy, bronchial asthma, chronic glomerulonephritis.

Table 1. The results of checking the availability of tendencies of change of indicators of primary disability in Dnipropetrovs'k region

* 1 – criterion of the extreme points; 2 – a criterion based on the signs differences; 3 – the criterion of record values; 4 – criterion Spearman; 5 – Mann

Continued of table 1

* 1 – criterion of the extreme points; 2 – a criterion based on the signs differences; 3 – the criterion of record values; 4 – criterion Spearman; 5 – Mann

Below there is a screenshot of the working program with the results of the reconstruction of the linear trend for the nosology of "Certain infectious and parasitic diseases", which identified a tendency to increase (Fig. 1).

Restored trend is described by the following equation: x = 0,1127*t + 1,56. The coefficient of the variable t can be interpreted as the rate of growth, that gives the additional information to experts of existing trends.

Fig. 1. A screenshot of the work program "DisTrend"

Thus, the computer technology research trends of changes in the level of primary disability in Ukraine has been developed, which is realized in the software "DisTrend". This technology was tested on the data of Ukrainian state research Institute of medical-social problems of disability. A practical application of this technology can give a more complete and qualitative information about the existing tendencies of changes of the level of disability and to become a basis for the development of effective programs for the planning of measures for the reduction of disability in Ukraine.

Literature:

1. Main indicators of disability and the activities of the medical-social expert Commission of Ukraine for the year 2010 (analytical information guide) [I.I. Marunich, A.I.Ipatov, Y.A. Korobkin, etc.] / ed. And. M. Yemtsa. – D.: Thresholds, 2011. – 135.

2. Kendall M. Multidimensional statistical analysis and time series / M. Kendall, A. Stuart. – M.: Nauka, 1976. – 375.