Gromtseva D. K., Goley J. M., Nezhenets E. V.

Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University


Currently, the Ukrainian currency is stable enough, but it was going through a lot of ups and downs. Major factors of failure of the hryvnia are errors in the exchange rate policy of the National Bank, according to experts. The prospects of the Ukrainian hryvnia analysts agree that in 2013 it will be devalued. Thus, according to the World Bank, this year the hryvnia exchange rate will fall to 8.7 UAH. / $ 1, but in 2014 it will begin a gradual strengthening of the national currency – to 8.6 UAH. / $ 1, and in 2015 the rate of exchange will be 8.4 UAH. / $ 1.

Minister of Economic Development and Trade Igor Prasolov, responding to a question about the exchange rate of hryvnia in the current year, said that the situation on the currency market today is stable and predictable. In the case of serious fluctuations in the national bank it will always be able to smooth out their own interventions.

Experts estimate that over the past year and a half NBU spent $ 11.4 billion foreign reserves to artificially hold the hryvnia for political reasons. Public debt increased by almost 10% over last year.

According to the research of company GFK in Ukraine, index of devaluation expectations of population in February fell to its lowest level since August last year.

Also, the government promises to strengthen the hryvnia after introduction of special duties on imported cars. Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade Law (ICIT) published its decision to impose special duties on new imported cars. It will be 6.46% for cars with engines of 1 to 1.5 liters, and 12.95% for cars with engines from 1.5 to 2.2 liters.

The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade notes, that the use of sanctions will have a positive impact on the financial and economic situation of domestic producers, enabling it to facilitate the process of economic adaptation to the conditions of competition and would eliminate the influence of trade disproportions that have arisen due to the conditions of import to Ukraine of automotive products.

In early February, the Director General of the Department of the monetary policy of the NBU Elena Shcherbakova promised that in future the regulator will do everything possible to prevent large fluctuations of the hryvnia against foreign currencies. She noted that the main purpose of the National Bank in 2013 is to continue to maintain price stability.

Recently, the dollar / hryvnia changes in the interbank foreign exchange market sluggish and dull. For February 2013 the highest average rate was 8.1321 UAH on February 22, and the lowest on February 8 – 8.0885 UAH. In general, it can be called a flexible exchange rate, which had been waiting for, and that is so much discussed. Changes are in dynamics, but how big for a month, this is a topic for specialists. Volume of hryvnia supply in the economy is growing. Interest rates on interbank loans are at a level of 2-3%, which in turn reduces the value of money in bank sector.

After analyzing a number of articles, it can be concluded that the present course of the Ukrainian currency is quite stable and will not change substantially in the nearest future.