Dudar K., Bezugly V., Tsvetayeva O.

Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University


People travel for a long time, but registration of their movement received rather recently. In total thanks to development of such concept as tourism.

According to the WTO forecast, in XXI the real tourist boom is expected: the number travelers in the world by 2020 will come nearer to 1.6 billion (612 million people traveled in 1997).

The largest British tourist publishing house «Travel & Tourism Intelligence» (TTI) entering into «Economist Intelligence Unit» published the research containing long-term, up to 2020, forecasts of development of the international tourism. The analysis of the given 30 largest exit markets submitting to 90% of volume of world tourism was carried out and the forecast concerning number of trips of tourists abroad, number of spending the night and money on foreign trips is made.

The travel market will grow. According to forecasts, the first place will reserve the adventure tourism. There were not so many places not investigated by people in the world. It only warms up the interest of romantics to them (especially travelers – thrill-seekers are attracted by Antarctica). It is necessary to develop the new routes with expansion of requirements.On the second place there are cruises. This sector develops very promptly in comparison with others. Activation of mass cruise tourism began approximately in 1997-2000. Since then its popularity increased. Strangely enough, but the sensational ecotourism took only the third position. Probably, it is caused by that is one of the youngest sectors of tourism. The ecotourism can exist only in the two types. The first includes rounds with visit of national reserves for vacationers in resorts. The second represents itself the thematic round which has been completely devoted to a subject of preservation of environment. The part of profit from ecotours goes on financing of projects on their protection. For this reason the hope of ecologists of improvements of protection of reserved zones increases together with development of ecotourism.

On the fourth position there is a cultural and informative tourism. As the research showed, the most interesting places for travel with the informative purposes there will be Europe, East Asia and the Middle East. Together with human inquisitiveness the need for improvement of protection of monuments increases too. Uncontrollable tourist streams can cause irreparable damage to any of them. Despite danger, the above-mentioned countries continue to welcome hospitably guests, thereby filling up the treasury. On the last place there was a thematic tourism. By which mean travel with studying of the concrete phenomena, for example, climate of the district. In the future the huge share of profit in this sector will belong to thematic parks. The Disneyland – one of the most known examples. Now in the world some new huge similar parks are under construction. Most of all present generation expects opening of «the real lock of Hogvarts» in Japan.

In the future the change of the main tourist streams is predicted. According to the WTO forecast China becomes it first of all. While it takes only the sixth place (22 million arrivals). By 2020 this indicator will reach a point of 137.1 million at an annual gain of number of tourist arrivals in 8%. The USA (102.4 million arrivals), then – France (93.3 million) and Spain (71.0 million) become the tourist directions second for popularity. Great Britain will appear on the seventh place (52.8 million arrivals).

 In total by 2020 the number of the international arrivals will make 1.6 billion that by 3 times will exceed indicators of 1995. Daily expenses of tourists, except for funds for air transportation, will increase to 5 billion dollars a day.

According to the WTO forecast, rapid development of exit tourism is expected. Germany, Japan, the USA, China, Great Britain become the largest countries suppliers of tourist streams.

In the largest markets changes as and in structure of exit tourism are expected. The share of interregional trips will increase by a long distance because people will travel more, the traditional directions will cease to arrange them, and they will prefer novelty. Besides, the tendency to further and quite fast depreciation of trips on a long distance, especially with the advent of new high-speed transport is planned. As changes will be connected with that development of the international tourism will cause creation of weight of new workplaces.