Loshak V. O., Panasyuk I. M.

Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University, Ukraine

PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE

The economic situation in Ukraine, which differs from other CIS and Eastern European countries’ situation that have embarked on economic reforms, causes great alarm. According to the official recognition of ex-President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma «things that happened to the economy of Ukraine, has no historical analogs». The problem essence of economic policy is the low efficiency of its means, the lack of effect on real economic indicators: the growth rates of GDP, the employment rate, the volume of investment etc.

We can’t be indifferent when Ukraine, which had been among the developed industrial countries, as a result of market reforms transformed into the minor country with prevailing raw character of economy. Leading positions in the aerospace branch, in number of directions of military and technical production, which were taken by Ukraine, unfortunately, don’t develop, but rather just saved. Opportunities which Ukraine had, for example, in the field of cybernetics are used very poorly, especially in comparison with such country as India, which in the last decades turned into the world leader on production of the software, exporting it on $20–30 bln. annually. Intellectual products are connected with the small material expenses, the cost of which is defined by highly skilled work of programmers, contain the high specific weight of added value that does such production profitable and effective.

And at that time, we substantially dug over half of Ukraine for the sake of production of ore and coal, metal smelting that considerably worsens ecology and human health, earning on it $7–8 bln. annually. Therefore improvement of structure of economy remains an unresolved actual problem. Very serious and sore issue is the technical and technological rearmament of economy, its transition to innovative type of development. During the years of independence updating of equipment and technologies almost haven’t been carried out, the equipment morally and physically have become outdated, that have caused low efficiency of economy. All these facts eloquently testify that there is growth without development in Ukraine, which can’t be recognized neither constant nor perspective for the country.

There is a very important question now: «What conditions should be to make it possible to change an economic situation to the better one?» It is clear that there are many factors causing development of economy of any country. First of all it is the political stability in the country, the economic legislation which provides favorable conditions for development of a domestic production and adoption of the appropriate measures by the government, its deliberate policy of production stimulation. The  European Bank for Reconstruction and Development  has reduced expectations of growth of economy of Ukraine from 2,5 % to 1,5 % in 2014, which it predicted in May, 2013. According to its report, the Ukrainian economy as well as Belarusian, whose forecast of growth for 2014 has worsened from 2,5 % to 1 %, lag behind among economy of countries of Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. In particular, the EBRD expects growth for 4 % in Georgia next year, for 3,5 % in ​​ Moldova, Azerbaijan and Armenia. The IMF predicts Ukraine’s GDP growth for 1,5 % in 2014, the World bank – 1,5–2 %. The experts have no common vision of development of the country when forecasting the main macroeconomic indicators for a medium-term prospect. The consensus assessment of growth of economy of Ukraine in average in 2015–2016 is 4,1 %. It is generally supposed that the main lever of economic growth will be extension of private consumption: the average value of real augmentation of private consumption is 5,7 %. According to the forecasts of experts expenses of nation-wide government will grow quiet composedly.

The opinion of experts about price situation differs significantly, too. Generally experts predict preservation of rather low rate of inflation: the average expected indicators of consumer price index and producer price index (averages in a year) are 105,2 % and 107,2 %.

More or less common position of experts is in the budgetary sphere: predictors consider that expenses of the budget will exceed the income (the average value of a budget deficit will be 2,4 % of GDP for 2015–2016 with the maximum value of 3 % of GDP).

In search of answers to numerous «rhetorical» questions about the future of our economy we aren’t tired to think out the new principles, foundations, approaches, «special ways», «national economic miracles» and other innovative economic configurations. Decline in production, underestimation of the state’s role have led Ukraine to the following consequences: physical extinction of considerable part of the population, citizens’ exodus abroad for earnings, low level of  remuneration of labor  and pension maintenance, existence of the critical majority of the enterprises, which work for a third and less than the rated power, ultralow providing of local budgets with costs. The economy of Ukraine is substantially caused ​​ by imperfection of public administration, inefficient macroeconomic policy. High level of the government expenditures has led to quick accumulation of internal and external debts, to pay off which Ukraine has no opportunity in the conditions of recession in real sector of economy. It leads to the debt stability, concentrates considerable part of credit resources on service of national debt, suppresses investment process in the conditions of low inflation.

The list of references:

1. Україна: перспективи розвитку. Консенсус-прогноз / [Н. Горшкова, І. Могілат, С. Бокун та ін.]. – К.: Міністерство економічного розвитку і торгівлі України, 2013. – Вип. 32. – 25 с.

2. Кучма Л. Д. «Путем радикальных экономических реформ»: матеріали сайту «Ритори клуб» [Electronic resource]. – Mode of access: http://www.ritori.com.ua/useful/speaches/ detail.php?ID=350

3. Новак А. Я. Економічне майбутнє – в далекому минулому? [Electronic resource] / А. Я. Новак. – Mode of access: http://www. andriynovak.info ›pub/doc/mabtn.doc