WEB-ресурс научно-практических конференций

PhD Palshina E.N.

The Ural Federal University, named the first Russian President BN Yeltsin , Ekaterinburg, Russia

ANTAGONISM OF STABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPING AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS IN THE MODERN WORLD

The world community faces today a problem of support of the economic growth rates, capable to supply progress reaching in mankind developing. Problems which the mankind faces, anyhow, carry the economic nature: military conflicts, ecological cataclysms, hunger and diseases – solutions on such different problems are largely determined by financial aspects. These consequences consist in necessity of restoring of territories – their infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, the places of residence of the population and overcoming of consequences of demographic deformations.

Overcoming of consequences both global, and local problems depends on ambitions and financial possibilities of the most developed countries of the world. Rate and level of economic developing of the well-founded countries determines a population standard of living in them, that, in turn, adds an impulse to developing of economy of other countries of the world.

The measures undertaken today by the governments of the advanced countries for adjustment of growth of economic, are interfaced to application of variety of the mechanisms routed on stabilization and bar of claim by lapse of time of negative consequences of uncontrollable growth as economy of the separate states, so economic as a whole. However, dangerous can be and consequences of stagnant manifestations, therefore the economic permanently balances between extreme measures.

  One of corner problems whom the world community should face at stimulation of growth of economic, it is necessity of income leveling and a population standard of living for the separate countries and even world locales. The sharpest discussions the last decades mention questions of a social inequality in company and possible roads of its overcoming. Thereupon a number of theories is devoted framing reasonable, from the point of view of efficiency, systems of application of the state instruments for economy adjustment so that, seriously not infringing interests of different grades of the population, to supply reaching of probably higher metrics of economic development.

Modern practice, unfortunately, does not allocate effective model of economy which would combine in itself interests of economic groups – consumers and manufacturers, and would consider these interests to equal satisfaction for both sides. It is not necessary to understand, however, that such model is essentially inaccessible, the problem that uniform "recipe" for its construction to find hardly will be possible. It is absolutely necessary to aspire to draw up ratios in company between manufacturers and домохозяйствами by means of state regulation so that, supplying due economic growth rate not to do company even more socially and economically unequal, so, – antagonist [1].

Thereupon it is necessary, according to the author, to research such basic questions, as, in – the first: whether social problems are containing growth of economic and, in – the second: whether overcoming in full or in part those reasons which stir to mankind progress is possible.

Realization of research suffices for the high-grade answer to these questions within the limits of any one science, whether it be sociology, political science or economy. Rather high-grade solution probably to specify only in case of fruitful cooperation of variety of scientific disciplines in the most different areas and spheres of the human knowledge anyhow mentioning all aspects of life of company.

Much in this direction is made by economists as past, and present time, within the limits of search of the compromise supplying harmonic functioning of economic agents within the limits of system of ratios. The most problematic sides, at making up of approaches of stimulation of economy, social aspects of unfair character of allocating of the newly founded cost traditionally were. The considerable quantity of approaches to understanding and methods of incarnation of ideas of harmonization and company socialization, was generated by plural currents and schools in an economic theory, offering construction of models socially safe, and simultaneously economically effective company. The spectrum of these models is wide and leans against the diverse theories which are making up types of ratios in ideal company, allowing individuals to be free in decision-making and to feel itself happy. The question on justice at the command of resources from the point of view of the property on them, and in allocating of the product manufactured by company is the most debatable and ambiguous as from the point of view of conceptual filling, and incarnation in practice.

Influence of financial loss from consequences of any events – wars, technogenic accidents and others, on a country economy consists in deceleration of rates of its developing in all spheres, and first of all in economic, supplying, in a final degree, restoring of the state and its further progress. In the conditions of world globalization processes, local problems gain the universal resonance which is especially brightly appearing in economy [4].

Considering the social factors influencing rates of world economic growth, it is necessary to evaluate quality of life of people, which deteriorating, first of all determines level of incomes of families. Revenue position households , according to the author, is primary and determines further factors – residing conditions, quantity and quality of food, and then and possibility of members of the family in incarnation of potential capabilities for support of the existence and existence of following generation, i.e. the direct descendants which starting point is again – the income value. Thus, the circle starts and becomes isolated on the family income, which supplies a survival to its members at qualitatively comprehensible level capable at least to supply playback of the number [3].

Extrinsic value and urgency, according to the author, the justification of interrelation of economic growth rates and population growth has.

It is necessary to recognize doubtless, that in modern company necessity of making up of essentially new mechanisms regulating not simply demographic, but social processes determined by them is felt. It is necessary to carry budgetary and monetary politics of the state to those mechanisms, at their effective usage.

On the foreground among the factors influencing world economic growth and simultaneously from it depending, there are problems of demographic boom and hunger. The world's population part suffers from hunger, in a certain degree for the reasons of physical shortage of the foodstuffs for support of all requiring in him. It is not necessary to consider, however, that simple un-sufficiency of manufacturing of food and retention of growth rates of production volumes of the foodstuffs in the world from growth rates of the population, is the hunger sole cause. This retention in a combination to non-uniformity of settling of territories and distinctions n atural – climatic conditions of territories in the different countries and locales determine, in turn, non-uniformity in manufacturing of a foodstuff.

Comprehensive consideration of a demographic problem, gives its understanding многоаспектности . One of aspects is the increase среднемировой life expectancies of the population in the world which has increased since 47 years in 1950-1955 till 68 years in 2005–2010. Scientists believe, that preserving of the installed tendency will reconcile to that in 2045 number of older persons in the world will exceed for the first time number of children. To the middle of the XXI-st century of the person at the age of 60 years also will be higher to make 22% of the population of a planet whereas in 1950 their share made 8 percent, and to the beginning of 2010 reached 11 percent [5]. Such demographic shift will have serious consequences and will essentially be mirrored in all aspects of life of company. In economic sphere population ageing will affect economic growth rates, the value of savings, a pattern of consumption, labor markets, a provision of pensions and process of a transfer of assets between generations. In social sphere population ageing will affect railroad train of families and the living condition, demand for housing, epidemiological conditions and demand for health services.

But, along with a problem of ageing of the population, the world faces one more paradoxical problem: in the early fifties world average the total coefficient of birth rate made about five births on one woman whereas on the beginning of 2010 – about half of this metric, and all in some decades, according to forecasts, it will reach level of simple reproduction – 2,1 children on one woman [5].

Statistics testifies that the steady tendency of structural deformation of the population takes place: the number born is simultaneously reduced and there is a population ageing in the developed countries to an income high level, and population vigorous growth in rather poor countries (the table № 1).

Table 1. Population growth in developed and developing countries, millions persons [6]

From the table it is visible, that in the developed countries for 60 years the quantity of people has increased only in one and a half time whereas population "explosion" in the developing countries, occurred in the last third of XX-th century, has reconciled in number doubling in these countries for the same period. Experts are inclined to evaluate such dynamics, as result of high birth rate and poverty.

As a result of a population explosion the population of Asia for 30 years with 1980 for 2010 has increased from 2,4 billion to 4,1 billion person, Africa for the same period from 472 million to 998 million persons, and the South America from 242 million to 540 million persons [5].

The today's level of development of company determines appearance new, unknown in making up of theories about the population of the factors influencing both on growth rates of the population of our planet, and on dynamics of consumption of the food products which are lagging behind rates of their manufacturing. Thereupon, following digits are rather informative.

Table 2. Change in consumption per unit of population in 2010 by 1990, times [6]

The given tables show expansion in consumption of the main food products from the countries with the greatest population – India and China , and the countries supplied with natural resources – groups BRIC. Data across Russia show reducing of consumption from the side households on principal views of products that can speak a number of factors among which it is necessary to mark negative dynamics of a population.

According to the author, from India, China, and, possibly, the CIS countries it is necessary to expect Brazil in the nearest 20–50 years of serious expansion in consumption (not only the foodstuffs) both owing to population increase, and owing to growth of economy of these states.

The considered countries will play a role of major users and in consumption of the raw necessary for support of growing needs of the industry: the last some years gross national product gain in China makes about 10%, and in India – 6–7% in an annual basis. The situation can be added in such a manner that the countries BRICK by 2035 will supersede on supporting parts in country economic of "the Big seven», thus an economic leader, most likely, there is China, it will be followed by India and Brazil. Proceeding from it, quite obviously growing influence of the Asian economy on trading, raw and investment streams in the world, moving centre of financial and economic developing from America and Europe to Asia . The determining factor of considered fluctuations, in our opinion, is the population explosion occurring in main in the developing countries [5].

In the conditions of population vigorous growth, special significance gains realization of the demographic policy routed on constraining of growth of the population. Experience of China in this sphere looks rather interesting, an increase in population following the results of implementation of a constraining demographic policy, did not exceed 0,6% a year for the last few years. The surveillance of birth rate in India as has led to certain stabilization of rates of increase in the order 1,6% a year. As a result of the complex policy of India and to China it was possible to stabilize growth rates of the population of the countries.

In the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America there are to this day extensive territories of chronic poverty, undereating and hunger. These are locales which in many respects exist for the bill humanitarian and medical aid of the developed countries, but such support cannot solve a problem of century backwardness, archaic public ratios, pre-capitalistic and even patrimonial traditions on some territories. Statistics on such countries is carried on poorly enough, and raises the doubts its reliability, however by estimations of the international organizations, from hunger and poverty in the world suffer about 300 million persons.

Problem solution on a global scale, according to the author, is possible only through domestic conversions, instead of by means of the outage help of the rich countries, however, reforming of ratios in company, effective reforming, is possible only on the prepared soil on which social conversions will allow to reach qualitative improvement of a situation. In realization of conversions the important role is played by the progress which explorer are the industrial countries appearing as beacons, reference points for all other world. The modern measures undertaken by the developed countries on rendering of humanitarian, medical and other help to the poorest countries and locales, are tolerance, politically correct, but are ineffective from the economic point of view. Not looking at scale of programs of the international help, the author believes, that by means of monetary payments and other similar measures it is impossible to improve position of the population in the poor countries in a little long-term perspective. Welfare poor not probably to increase, not reducing in the same measure of welfare of other members of a society. Giving to the poor population the part of the foodstuffs or money resources for its acquisition, thereby occurs weaning these resources for other part of the population, but thus quantity money, products, in company does not increase – simply part of the blessings is reconstituted. Possibly, well-founded countries and citizens can transfer this process without an appreciable damage for themselves in current time, but similar measures do not allow to increase product size in company and do the poor population "full" only for a while.

Stimulation in the poorest countries of conditions for economic growth would be more effective: workstations, qualified personnel that would create additional quantity of a product in system, not impoverishing thus other, more safe members of a society.

Except an inefficiency in a method of social welfare of the poor and poorest countries, process of transmission of a share of the manufactured product generates one more problem: the well-founded countries take away from themselves resources, determining deceleration in the future of growth rates of the economy.

Such tendency is especially dangerous, as the system of "smoothing" which is drawn up by the advanced countries, represents the global subsidiary circuit when the poor countries receive from rich the help within the limits of set of programs, not eliminating thus the reason of the poverty. The given situation, inherently, is the international paternalism in the worst manifestation when the countries – children consider due manifestation of care of from the countries – fathers, motivating the requests, including long-term colonization of the territories and the people.

The existing extensive system is absolutely ineffective, as subsidized the side cannot improve for a long time the existence, and only increases the consumption for the bill at a time either periodically received product, or its money's worth, as a result there is a growth of the aggregate demand which has been not supported with creation of a new product. Thus the poverty reasons are not eliminated, start conditions for the members of a society, supplying more fair allocating of possibilities for support of the requirements independently are not aligned. It would be much more effective to stimulate the poor population to increase the welfare and to expand consumption by means of investment with its possibilities to work, increasing the incomes with own efforts. Such actions, unconditionally, would be wasteful, but they should be considered, as investments as expended resources would not be consumed in the short-term period, and would create new workstations in economy, determining the balanced economic growth on a global scale [2].

One of serious negative effects of considered processes is that the world community faces today to a scale-up problem of food pricings in a certain degree because diligence to supply the poor population with a foodstuff for the bill of reconstituting of these products manufactured in the developed countries, calls a boomerang effect – the population of the poor countries, not becoming more richly, continues to increase the number counting on the further help of the rich countries whereas the product in company does not become more, demand for it grows, food pricings for everything grow also, that on themselves those inhabitants who create this product, instead of poor more considerably feel.

Food pricings, possibly, remain high and will save the tendency to growth and next decade corrections as a result of response of a supply and demand to a high level of the prices, however, are quite possible. Further dynamics of the world prices for the foodstuffs, according to the author, will be determined largely by such factors, as:

- rates economic and demographic increase, first of all in the countries South – East Asia and Latin America ;

- the price for hydrocarbons: petroleum and other raw in the world markets, that in a certain degree is determined by a policy in the field of bio-fuel manufacturing;

- production potentialities on increase in the tender of agricultural production in the conditions of the limited ground resources, present technologies and possible climatic fluctuations.

The presented opinion returns us to necessity to access to consideration of the factors, allowing to evaluate disproportions existing in the world as in the ratio concerning simple things – between growth rates of the population of a planet and foodstuffs increase in production, and on questions боле from items economic and social – what roads of solution of problems of reconstituting of resources to universal scale can be difficult.

Thus, it is necessary to mark, that economic as сложноорганизованная the system is the developing, evolving organism which laws of functioning are not always obvious. The modern economic theory has necessary toolkit for the necessary analysis and construction of the models routed on comprehensive solution of problems of mankind.

References :

1.     Anikin А . V. Y outh science. Life and ideas of thinkers before K. Marx / A.V. Anikin. – M.: Politizdat , 1971.

2.     History of economic thought / ed. by Kruglov V.V. , Balakhonova E .V. – St. Petersburg : Peter -press , 2008.

3.     Saint-Simon . Selected works . – V.1 -2. – M. ; Leningrad , 1948.

4.     Volgin V.P . French Utopian communism / V.P. Volgin . – M.: USSR , 1960.

5.     The report of World Population Ageing " World Population Ageing ," Population Division United Nations , 2010.

6.     Electronic resource. – Access mode: http://www.worldbank.com